← FIFA World Cup 2026 · quarter finals · Thu, Jul 9, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Facundo Raul Tello Figueroa, Argentina
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes in France v Morocco · france win penalties @ 23.50 | Tom irl | $20.00 | 23.50 | $450.00 | — | -20.00 | lost |
Yes in France v Morocco · morocco win 90 @ 6.50 | Tom irl | $40.00 | 6.50 | $220.00 | — | -40.00 | lost |
Draw in France v Morocco · Match result @ 3.75 | Mad game live | $275.49 | 3.75 | $757.60 | -20% | -275.49 | lost |
France win in France v Morocco · Match result @ 1.57 | Mad game live | $657.61 | 1.57 | $375.50 | +13% | +375.50 | won |
Yes in France v Morocco · mbappe 1plus goal q1 @ 5.25 | Tom irl | $10.00 | 5.25 | $42.50 | — | -10.00 | lost |
Yes in France v Morocco · france win and btts @ 3.50 | Tom irl | $10.00 | 3.50 | $25.00 | — | -10.00 | lost |
Yes in France v Morocco · morocco win either half @ 3.10 | Tom irl | $10.00 | 3.10 | $21.00 | — | -10.00 | lost |
Over 1.5 in France v Morocco · 1h total goals @ 2.80 | Tom irl | $10.00 | 2.80 | $18.00 | — | -10.00 | lost |
(none listed) in France v Morocco · score 1st goal @ 11.00 | Tom irl | $10.00 | 11.00 | $100.00 | — | — | pending |
Kylian Mbappe in France v Morocco · First goalscorer @ 3.40 | Tom irl | $10.00 | 3.40 | $24.00 | — | +24.00 | won |
Over 0.5 in France v Morocco · france total goals @ 1.12 | Tom irl | $1.00 | 1.12 | $0.12 | — | +0.12 | won |
leg 1: Yes in France v Morocco · france win either half @ 1.00 leg 2: Over 0.5 in France v Morocco · france total goals @ 1.00 leg 3: France in France v Morocco · team most corners @ 1.00 leg 4: Kylian Mbappe in France v Morocco · anytime scorer or assist @ 1.00 leg 5: Over 7.5 in France v Morocco · total corners @ 1.00 | Tom irl | $10.00 | 2.90 | $19.00 | — | — | pending |
2-0 in France v Morocco · 1h correct score @ 7.00 | Tom irl | $9.00 | 7.00 | $54.00 | — | -9.00 | lost |
France/Morocco in France v Morocco · ht ft @ 41.00 | Tom irl | $10.00 | 41.00 | $400.00 | — | -10.00 | lost |
France/France in France v Morocco · ht ft @ 2.30 | Tom irl | $5.00 | 2.30 | $6.50 | — | -5.00 | lost |
France/Tie in France v Morocco · ht ft @ 12.00 | Tom irl | $5.00 | 12.00 | $55.00 | — | -5.00 | lost |
3-1 in France v Morocco · correct score @ 12.00 | Tom irl | $10.00 | 12.00 | $110.00 | — | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in France v Morocco · Match result @ 4.00 | Dutch cover | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | -2.50 | lost |
Morocco win in France v Morocco · Match result @ 6.53 | Dutch cover | $17.50 | 6.53 | $96.78 | +32% | -17.50 | lost |
Draw in France v Morocco · Match result @ 4.00 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +18% | -5.00 | lost |
Morocco win in France v Morocco · Match result @ 6.53 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 6.53 | $27.65 | +32% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Achraf Hakimi in France v Morocco · Score or assist @ 3.40 lost leg 2: Ousmane Dembele in France v Morocco · Score or assist @ 2.01 won | Soa duo parlay | $3.00 | 6.83 | $17.50 | +84% | -3.00 | lost |
Ousmane Dembele in France v Morocco · Score or assist @ 2.01 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 2.01 | $5.05 | +42% | +5.05 | won |
Achraf Hakimi in France v Morocco · Score or assist @ 3.40 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 3.40 | $12.00 | +29% | -5.00 | lost |
Morocco win in France v Morocco · To advance (incl. extra time / penalties) @ 3.96 | WC futures | $10.00 | 3.96 | $29.56 | +33% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 60% | 71% | 1.65 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
| Morocco win | 15% | 5% | 6.53 | fair |
across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 66% | 1.85 | value: +23% |
| Over | 48% | 34% | 2.04 | fair |
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco win | 6.29 | 6.00 | -4.6% | |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.90 | +2.6% | |
| France win | 1.57 | 1.58 | +0.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 60' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 63' | 🟨 | Issa Diop · Morocco |
| 66' | ⚽ | Ousmane Dembélé · France |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | France | Morocco |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.58 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 5121.00 | 130.00 |
| congestion 21d | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | home |
| stage | QUARTER_FINALS |
| venue | Gillette Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| No | 53% | 76% | 1.80 | value: +36% ⚠ |
| Yes | 47% | 24% | 2.04 | fair |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9 | 51% | 1.87 |
| Over 9 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 27% | 3.66 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 12% | 8.56 |
| Desire Doue | 10% | 10.45 |
| Michael Olise | 10% | 10.45 |
| No Goal | 9% | 11.74 |
| Brahim Diaz | 6% | 15.64 |
| Azzedine Ounahi | 5% | 18.75 |
| Chemsdine Talbi | 5% | 18.75 |
top 8 of 18 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 55% | 1.95 |
| Marcus Thuram | 35% | 3.15 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 34% | 3.15 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 33% | 3.35 |
| Michael Olise | 27% | 4.20 |
| Desire Doue | 27% | 4.98 |
| Rayan Cherki | 27% | 4.20 |
| Bradley Barcola | 26% | 4.20 |
top 8 of 48 priced players · across 9 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 68% | 1.50 |
| Michael Olise | 51% | 1.97 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 49% | 2.09 |
| Desire Doue | 45% | 3.18 |
| Brahim Diaz | 33% | 4.31 |
| Achraf Hakimi | 26% | 4.51 |
| Adrien Rabiot | 20% | 4.98 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni | 20% | 7.25 |
top 8 of 22 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 19% | 5.56 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 7% | 15.64 |
| Michael Olise | 4% | 23.43 |
| Desire Doue | 4% | 31.21 |
| Brahim Diaz | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 5% | 18.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe 1+ | 99% | 1.01 |
| Michael Olise 1+ | 97% | 1.05 |
| Rayan Cherki 1+ | 96% | 1.04 |
| Ousmane Dembele 1+ | 96% | 1.05 |
| Maghnes Akliouche 1+ | 94% | 1.06 |
| Desire Doue 1+ | 93% | 1.12 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta 2+ | 90% | 1.11 |
| Ismael Saibari 1+ | 86% | 1.16 |
top 8 of 46 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 23 higher-line quotes captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe 1+ | 91% | 1.12 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta 1+ | 77% | 1.35 |
| Marcus Thuram 1+ | 73% | 1.40 |
| Maghnes Akliouche 1+ | 65% | 1.60 |
| Ousmane Dembele 1+ | 64% | 1.67 |
| Rayan Cherki 1+ | 62% | 1.67 |
| Michael Olise 1+ | 61% | 1.73 |
| Desire Doue 1+ | 61% | 1.73 |
top 8 of 46 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 21 higher-line quotes captured
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | — |
| elo | 2035.15 | 1958.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.06 | 21.73 |
| eye test v1 | 1.70 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.60 | 67.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| league points | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 4.96 | 5.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.62 | 1.26 |
| solidity v1 | 1.61 | 1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.62 | 26.87 |
| state index | 2.25 | 1.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | 1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 1.66 |