← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Nov 1, 09:30 PM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Draw in Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.31 leg 2: Draw in Atlanta United FC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 4.00 | WC parlay | $5.00 | 17.24 | $81.20 | +9% | — | pending |
Toronto FC win in Atlanta United FC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 2.95 | Steam chaser | $5.00 | 2.95 | $9.75 | — | — | pending |
Draw in Atlanta United FC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 4.00 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +7% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC win | 44% | 45% | 2.23 | fair |
| Toronto FC win | 32% | 28% | 3.45 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.06 | value: +9% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC win | 3.45 | 2.85 | -17.4% | |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.90 | -2.5% | |
| Atlanta United FC win | 1.88 | 2.21 | +17.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Stadium |