← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Aug 2, 01:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Villarreal
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Under in Colorado Rapids v Austin · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.31 | Main (your slate bets) | $5.56 | 2.31 | $7.28 | +3% | +7.28 | won |
Austin win in Colorado Rapids v Austin · Match result @ 4.20 | Main (your slate bets) | $4.58 | 4.20 | $14.66 | +6% | -4.58 | lost |
Draw in Colorado Rapids v Austin · Match result @ 4.16 | Dutch cover | $2.40 | 4.16 | $7.58 | — | -2.40 | lost |
Austin win in Colorado Rapids v Austin · Match result @ 4.50 | Dutch cover | $17.60 | 4.50 | $61.60 | +14% | -17.60 | lost |
Austin win in Colorado Rapids v Austin · Match result @ 4.50 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 4.50 | $17.50 | +14% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in Colorado Rapids v Austin · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.43 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.43 | $14.30 | +8% | +14.30 | won |
Draw in Colorado Rapids v Austin · Match result @ 4.16 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.16 | $15.80 | +1% | -5.00 | lost |
Austin win in Colorado Rapids v Austin · Match result @ 4.50 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.50 | $17.50 | +14% | -5.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids win | 54% | 50% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.16 | fair |
| Austin win | 22% | 25% | 4.75 | value: +21% |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 56% | 1.71 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 44% | 2.43 | value: +8% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin win | 4.20 | 4.30 | +2.4% | |
| Draw | 3.98 | 3.89 | -2.1% | |
| Colorado Rapids win | 1.73 | 1.75 | +1.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Austin · Davy Arnaud
Brad Stuver · Mateja Đorđević · Brendan Hines-Ike · Guilherme Biro · Joseph Rosales · Besard Sabović · Owen Wolff · Jon Gallagher · Facundo Torres · Brandon Vázquez · Myrto Uzuni
Colorado Rapids · Matt Wells
Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen · Reggie Cannon · Lucas Herrington · Loïc Williams · Miguel Navarro · Wayne Frederick · Hamzat Ojediran · Dante Sealy · Paxten Aaronson · Georgi Minoungou · Rafael Navarro
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 70' | 🟨 | Ervin Torres · Austin |
| 72' | 🟨 | Joseph Rosales · Austin |
| 90' | 🟨 | Myrto Uzuni · Austin |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Rafael Navarro · Colorado Rapids |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Navarro · Colorado Rapids |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colorado Rapids | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 182.00 | 93.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Dick's Sporting Goods Park |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 58% | 57% | 1.67 | fair |
| No | 42% | 43% | 2.40 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under 9.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under 4.5 | 49% | 1.93 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| 4.40 |
| 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.43 |
| elo | 1444.61 | 1419.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.69 | -33.83 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| league points | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 26.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.48 | -1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 23.93 | 28.89 |
| state index | -0.26 | -1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.67 |