← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Aug 1, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: E. Arreguin
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles FC win in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 6.50 | Fade goal live | $5.00 | 6.50 | $27.50 | +14% | -5.00 | lost |
Los Angeles FC win in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.10 | Mad game live | $137.75 | 4.10 | $427.02 | +25% | -137.75 | lost |
Vancouver Whitecaps win in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 1.73 | Mad game live | $327.03 | 1.73 | $237.75 | -22% | -327.03 | lost |
leg 1: Draw in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.26 won leg 2: Columbus Crew win in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Match result @ 4.75 lost | WC parlay | $5.00 | 20.23 | $96.17 | +14% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Draw in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.26 won leg 2: Columbus Crew win in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Match result @ 4.75 lost | WC parlay | $5.00 | 20.23 | $96.17 | +14% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.26 | Dutch cover | $2.35 | 4.26 | $7.66 | — | +7.66 | won |
Los Angeles FC win in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.00 | Dutch cover | $17.65 | 4.00 | $52.95 | +20% | -17.65 | lost |
Los Angeles FC win in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.00 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +20% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.55 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.55 | $15.50 | +12% | +15.50 | won |
Draw in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.26 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.26 | $16.30 | +6% | +16.30 | won |
Los Angeles FC win in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.00 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +20% | -5.00 | lost |
Los Angeles FC win in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.00 | Portfolio | $7.90 | 4.00 | $23.70 | +9% | -7.90 | lost |
Under in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.45 | Main (your slate bets) | $20.10 | 2.45 | $29.15 | +9% | +29.15 | won |
Los Angeles FC win in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.03 | Main (your slate bets) | $22.71 | 4.03 | $68.81 | +22% | -22.71 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps win | 51% | 45% | 2.00 | fair |
| Los Angeles FC win | 25% | 30% | 4.20 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.26 | value: +6% |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 56% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 44% | 2.55 | value: +12% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC win | 3.94 | 3.41 | -13.3% | |
| Draw | 3.98 | 3.95 | -0.9% | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps win | 1.77 | 1.95 | +9.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 37' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Los Angeles FC |
| 48' | 🟨 | Ryan Hollingshead · Los Angeles FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ryan Gauld · Vancouver Whitecaps |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Thomas Müller · Vancouver Whitecaps |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vancouver Whitecaps | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 212.00 | 212.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | BC Place |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 61% | 59% | 1.55 | fair |
| No | 39% | 41% | 2.55 | value: +5% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under 9.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over 4.5 | 48% | 1.95 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3.60 |
| 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.21 |
| elo | 1641.95 | 1627.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.72 | 28.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.94 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.50 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.23 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 33.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 1.83 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | 0.51 |
| solidity v1 | -0.03 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.17 | 30.32 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.68 |