← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Aug 1, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Penso
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Columbus Crew win in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Match result @ 5.00 | Mad game live | $110.62 | 5.00 | $442.48 | +14% | -110.62 | lost |
Inter Miami win in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Match result @ 1.61 | Mad game live | $342.47 | 1.61 | $210.62 | -6% | -342.47 | lost |
Columbus Crew win in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Match result @ 4.96 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 4.96 | $19.80 | +12% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Draw in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.26 won leg 2: Columbus Crew win in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Match result @ 4.75 lost | WC parlay | $5.00 | 20.23 | $96.17 | +14% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Draw in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.26 won leg 2: Columbus Crew win in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Match result @ 4.75 lost | WC parlay | $5.00 | 20.23 | $96.17 | +14% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Match result @ 4.40 | Dutch cover | $2.27 | 4.40 | $7.72 | — | +7.72 | won |
Columbus Crew win in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Match result @ 4.75 | Dutch cover | $17.73 | 4.75 | $66.49 | +7% | -17.73 | lost |
Columbus Crew win in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Match result @ 4.75 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.75 | $18.75 | +7% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Philadelphia Union win in Philadelphia Union v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 1.68 won leg 2: FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 1.97 won leg 3: Yes in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Both teams to score @ 1.40 won | Main (your slate bets) | $5.00 | 4.63 | $18.17 | +5% | +18.17 | won |
Over in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.36 | Main (your slate bets) | $25.55 | 1.36 | $9.20 | +4% | +9.20 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami win | 56% | 58% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
| Columbus Crew win | 22% | 23% | 4.96 | value: +12% |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 76% | 1.39 | value: +5% |
| Under | 31% | 24% | 3.25 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew win | 3.95 | 4.67 | +18.4% | |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.33 | +4.3% | |
| Inter Miami win | 1.73 | 1.64 | -5.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 16' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · Inter Miami |
| 34' | ⚽ (og) | Casemiro · Columbus Crew |
| 45' | ⚽ | Noah Allen · Inter Miami |
| 74' | 🟨 | Sekou Tidiany Bangoura · Columbus Crew |
| 82' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Inter Miami |
| 84' | ⚽ | Brais Méndez · Columbus Crew |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patrick Schulte · Columbus Crew |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Inter Miami | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 122.00 | 181.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1705.32 | 1518.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.28 | -3.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Nu Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 67% | 71% | 1.42 | fair |
| No | 33% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Over 9.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 3.5 | 44% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| 3.40 |
| 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 0.71 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| league points | 37.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 1.12 |
| squad age | 27.07 | 28.16 |
| state index | 1.13 | -0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |