← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Aug 1, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: V. Rivas
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in FC Cincinnati v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.30 | Dutch cover | $2.33 | 4.30 | $7.69 | — | -2.33 | lost |
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 2.02 | Dutch cover | $17.67 | 2.02 | $18.02 | +6% | +18.02 | won |
Under in FC Cincinnati v San Jose Earthquakes · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.60 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 3.60 | $26.00 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Philadelphia Union win in Philadelphia Union v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 1.68 won leg 2: FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 1.97 won leg 3: Yes in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Both teams to score @ 1.40 won | Main (your slate bets) | $5.00 | 4.63 | $18.17 | +5% | +18.17 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati win | 48% | 52% | 2.02 | value: +6% |
| San Jose Earthquakes win | 29% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.40 | fair |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 72% | 1.35 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes win | 3.30 | 3.35 | +1.5% | |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.20 | +5.0% | |
| FC Cincinnati win | 1.90 | 1.91 | +0.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 20' | 🟨 | Kyle Smith · FC Cincinnati |
| 26' | ⚽ | Daniel Munie · San Jose Earthquakes |
| 34' | ⚽ | Bryan Ramirez · FC Cincinnati |
| 57' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · San Jose Earthquakes |
| 80' | ⚽ | Tom Barlow · FC Cincinnati |
| 82' | ⚽ | Evander · FC Cincinnati |
| 87' | 🟨 | Pavel Bucha · FC Cincinnati |
| 89' | 🟨 | Miles Robinson · FC Cincinnati |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ayoub Jabbari · FC Cincinnati |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Cincinnati | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1642.00 | 577.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1547.64 | 1511.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.40 | -32.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) |
| venue | TQL Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 71% | 70% | 1.34 | fair |
| No | 29% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +4% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under 9.5 | 50% | 2.02 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under 4.5 | 49% | 1.92 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3.40 |
| 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.55 |
| league points | 23.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.02 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.94 |
| squad age | 26.64 | 26.83 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |