← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Aug 1, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Chapman
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta United FC win in Philadelphia Union v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 2.20 | Fade goal live | $5.00 | 2.20 | $6.00 | +51% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in Philadelphia Union v Atlanta United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.41 lost leg 2: Under in New York Red Bulls v Orlando City SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.50 lost | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 8.44 | $37.18 | +31% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in Philadelphia Union v Atlanta United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.41 lost leg 2: Under in New York Red Bulls v Orlando City SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.50 lost | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 8.44 | $37.18 | +31% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in Philadelphia Union v Atlanta United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.41 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.41 | $14.10 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Philadelphia Union win in Philadelphia Union v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 1.68 won leg 2: FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 1.97 won leg 3: Yes in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Both teams to score @ 1.40 won | Main (your slate bets) | $5.00 | 4.63 | $18.17 | +5% | +18.17 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union win | 56% | 60% | 1.74 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
| Atlanta United FC win | 21% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 57% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 43% | 2.44 | value: +6% |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC win | 4.50 | 4.60 | +2.2% | |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.10 | +5.1% | |
| Philadelphia Union win | 1.68 | 1.67 | -0.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Union | Atlanta United FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 577.00 | 608.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Subaru Park |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 58% | 54% | 1.73 | fair |
| No | 42% | 46% | 2.30 | value: +5% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 51% | 1.87 |
| Under 9.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 54% | 1.69 |
| Under 3.5 | 46% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| 90' | ⚽ | Ezekiel Alladoh · Philadelphia Union |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 6.00 |
| 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.62 | 2.49 |
| elo | 1499.60 | 1367.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.59 | -11.81 |
| eye test v1 | 1.81 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.66 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.70 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.99 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 29.00 | 30.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.78 |
| solidity v1 | -1.01 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.77 | 28.63 |
| state index | 0.11 | -1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.61 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.24 | 1.55 |