← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Aug 1, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Dujic
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 1.53 | Fade goal live | $5.00 | 1.53 | $2.66 | +11% | +2.66 | won |
leg 1: Under in Philadelphia Union v Atlanta United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.41 lost leg 2: Under in New York Red Bulls v Orlando City SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.50 lost | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 8.44 | $37.18 | +31% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in Philadelphia Union v Atlanta United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.41 lost leg 2: Under in New York Red Bulls v Orlando City SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.50 lost | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 8.44 | $37.18 | +31% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Charlotte win in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 5.50 lost leg 2: Under in New York Red Bulls v Orlando City SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.50 lost leg 3: San Diego win in Minnesota United FC v San Diego · Match result @ 3.50 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 67.38 | $132.75 | +155% | -2.00 | lost |
Under in New York Red Bulls v Orlando City SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.50 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 3.50 | $25.00 | +25% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in New York Red Bulls v Orlando City SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.50 | Portfolio | $11.05 | 3.50 | $27.63 | +11% | -11.05 | lost |
No in New York Red Bulls v Orlando City SC · Both teams to score @ 3.25 | Main (your slate bets) | $17.14 | 3.25 | $38.56 | +12% | -17.14 | lost |
Under in New York Red Bulls v Orlando City SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.36 | Main (your slate bets) | $25.55 | 3.36 | $60.30 | +19% | -25.55 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls win | 45% | 45% | 2.29 | value: +4% |
| Orlando City SC win | 32% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.30 | fair |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 64% | 1.34 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 36% | 3.60 | value: +28% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC win | 3.06 | 2.78 | -9.2% | |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.0% | |
| New York Red Bulls win | 2.00 | 2.25 | +12.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Red Bulls | Orlando City SC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 912.00 | 2435.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Sports Illustrated Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 72% | 65% | 1.33 | fair |
| No | 28% | 35% | 3.50 | value: +22% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under 9.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 4.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 5.00 |
| 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.62 |
| elo | 1448.57 | 1511.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.93 | 27.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.69 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| league points | 22.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.18 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | 0.55 |
| solidity v1 | -0.95 | -1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 23.71 | 27.11 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.85 | 1.69 |