← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Aug 2, 12:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Ford
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No in Minnesota United FC v San Diego · Both teams to score @ 2.62 | Main (your slate bets) | $7.81 | 2.62 | $12.65 | +5% | -7.81 | lost |
leg 1: Charlotte win in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 5.50 lost leg 2: Under in New York Red Bulls v Orlando City SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.50 lost leg 3: San Diego win in Minnesota United FC v San Diego · Match result @ 3.50 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 67.38 | $132.75 | +155% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v San Diego · Match result @ 4.00 | Dutch cover | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | +7.50 | won |
San Diego win in Minnesota United FC v San Diego · Match result @ 3.50 | Dutch cover | $17.50 | 3.50 | $43.75 | +22% | -17.50 | lost |
San Diego win in Minnesota United FC v San Diego · Match result @ 3.50 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 3.50 | $12.50 | +22% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in Minnesota United FC v San Diego · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.63 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.63 | $16.30 | +14% | +16.30 | won |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v San Diego · Match result @ 4.00 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +1% | +15.00 | won |
Under in Minnesota United FC v San Diego · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.57 | Main (your slate bets) | $20.61 | 2.57 | $32.36 | +11% | +32.36 | won |
San Diego win in Minnesota United FC v San Diego · Match result @ 3.48 | Main (your slate bets) | $22.72 | 3.48 | $56.35 | +22% | -22.72 | lost |
San Diego win in Minnesota United FC v San Diego · Match result @ 3.50 | Portfolio | $9.54 | 3.50 | $23.85 | +9% | -9.54 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC win | 47% | 40% | 2.06 | fair |
| San Diego win | 28% | 35% | 3.50 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 57% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 43% | 2.80 | value: +21% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego win | 3.41 | 3.33 | -2.5% | |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.83 | -1.9% | |
| Minnesota United FC win | 1.93 | 2.00 | +3.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
San Diego · Mikey Varas
CJ Dos Santos · Dagur Dan Þórhallsson · Christopher McVey · Manu Duah · Kieran Sargeant · Alejandro Alvarado Jr · Jeppe Tverskov · Onni Valakari · Anders Dreyer · Marcus Ingvartsen · David Vazquez
Minnesota United FC · Cameron Knowles
Drake Callender · Kyle Duncan · Jefferson Díaz · Michael Boxall · Morris Duggan · Anthony Markanich · Joaquín Pereyra · Wil Trapp · Owen Gene · Tomás Chancalay · Mamadou Dieng
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 3' | ⚽ | Tomás Chancalay · Minnesota United FC |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Anders Dreyer · San Diego |
| 64' | 🟨 | Anders Dreyer · San Diego |
| 64' | 🟨 | Drake Callender · Minnesota United FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 182.00 | 700.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Allianz Field |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 64% | 60% | 1.50 | fair |
| No | 36% | 40% | 2.80 | value: +12% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Over 9.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 4.5 | 48% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| 6.60 |
| 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 2.54 |
| elo | 1524.30 | 1532.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.10 | -5.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.49 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| league points | 23.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.18 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | 1.24 |
| solidity v1 | 0.66 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.70 | 26.07 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.53 |