← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Aug 2, 12:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Freemon
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charlotte win in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 501.00 | Dd live | $10.00 | 501.00 | $5000.00 | +35% | -10.00 | lost |
Charlotte win in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 5.50 | Fade goal live | $5.00 | 5.50 | $22.50 | +65% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Charlotte win in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 5.50 lost leg 2: Under in New York Red Bulls v Orlando City SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.50 lost leg 3: San Diego win in Minnesota United FC v San Diego · Match result @ 3.50 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 67.38 | $132.75 | +155% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 4.87 | Dutch cover | $2.05 | 4.87 | $7.93 | — | -2.05 | lost |
Charlotte win in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 5.50 | Dutch cover | $17.95 | 5.50 | $80.77 | +68% | -17.95 | lost |
Draw in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 4.87 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 4.87 | $19.35 | +19% | -5.00 | lost |
Charlotte win in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 5.50 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 5.50 | $22.50 | +68% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.94 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.94 | $19.40 | +22% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 4.87 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.87 | $19.35 | +19% | -5.00 | lost |
Charlotte win in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 5.50 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 5.50 | $22.50 | +68% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.79 | Main (your slate bets) | $22.72 | 2.79 | $40.67 | +16% | -22.72 | lost |
Charlotte win in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 5.35 | Main (your slate bets) | $22.72 | 5.35 | $98.83 | +64% | -22.72 | lost |
Charlotte win in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 5.50 | Portfolio | $5.05 | 5.50 | $22.72 | +33% | -5.05 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire win | 61% | 45% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 4.93 | value: +21% |
| Charlotte win | 18% | 30% | 5.50 | value: +68% |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 58% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 42% | 2.94 | value: +23% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte win | 5.20 | 5.28 | +1.4% | |
| Draw | 4.57 | 4.60 | +0.5% | |
| Chicago Fire win | 1.50 | 1.52 | +1.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Charlotte · Dean Smith
Kristijan Kahlina · Nathan Byrne · Morrison Agyemang · Henry Kessler · Harry Toffolo · Luca De La Torre · Ashley Westwood · Djibril Diani · Pep Biel · Idan Toklomati · Liel Abada
Chicago Fire · Mario Barcena
Chris Brady · Leonardo Barroso · Joel Waterman · Jack Elliott · Andrew Gutman · Philip Zinckernagel · Dje Tah D'Avilla · Anton Salétros · Jonathan Bamba · Robert Lewandowski · Robin Lod
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 10' | 🟨 | Anton Salétros · Chicago Fire |
| 18' | ⚽ | Pep Biel · Charlotte |
| 20' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · Chicago Fire |
| 59' | 🟨 | Joel Waterman · Chicago Fire |
| 68' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · Chicago Fire |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robert Lewandowski · Chicago Fire |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Fire | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.63 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 123.00 | 975.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Soldier Field |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 61% | 60% | 1.60 | fair |
| No | 39% | 40% | 2.55 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over 9.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | 53% | 1.79 |
| Under 4.5 | 47% | 2.02 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4.00 |
| 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.59 |
| elo | 1521.98 | 1523.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.88 | 16.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.97 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 26.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.47 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -0.23 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.48 | 28.50 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.32 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.47 |