← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Jul 26, 12:30 AM UTC · ref: F. Dujic
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: FC Cincinnati win in Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.10 lost leg 2: Austin win in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Match result @ 5.00 lost | WC parlay | $5.00 | 20.50 | $97.50 | +40% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: FC Cincinnati win in Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.10 lost leg 2: Austin win in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Match result @ 5.00 lost | WC parlay | $5.00 | 20.50 | $97.50 | +40% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Minnesota United FC win in Minnesota United FC v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 3.85 lost leg 2: Austin win in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Match result @ 5.00 lost leg 3: Under in New York Red Bulls v Charlotte · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.55 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 49.09 | $96.17 | +96% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Match result @ 4.10 | Dutch cover | $2.44 | 4.10 | $7.56 | — | -2.44 | lost |
Austin win in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Match result @ 5.00 | Dutch cover | $17.56 | 5.00 | $70.24 | +24% | -17.56 | lost |
Austin win in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Match result @ 5.00 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 5.00 | $20.00 | +24% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.23 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.23 | $12.30 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Match result @ 4.10 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.10 | $15.50 | +7% | -5.00 | lost |
Austin win in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Match result @ 5.00 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 5.00 | $20.00 | +24% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.13 | Main (your slate bets) | $21.37 | 2.13 | $24.15 | +9% | -21.37 | lost |
Austin win in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Match result @ 4.52 | Main (your slate bets) | $8.49 | 4.52 | $29.88 | +11% | -8.49 | lost |
Austin win in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Match result @ 5.00 | Portfolio | $4.52 | 5.00 | $18.08 | +11% | -4.52 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo win | 56% | 49% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.40 | value: +13% |
| Austin win | 20% | 25% | 5.80 | value: +44% |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 49% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 51% | 2.38 | value: +20% |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin win | 5.55 | 4.50 | -18.9% | |
| Draw | 4.28 | 3.88 | -9.4% | |
| Houston Dynamo win | 1.52 | 1.73 | +13.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Austin · 3-4-3 · Davy Arnaud
Brad Stuver · Brendan Hines-Ike · Oleksandr Svatok · Guilherme Biro · Przemysław Płacheta · Owen Wolff · Ilie Sánchez · Jon Gallagher · Facundo Torres · Brandon Vázquez · Myrto Uzuni
Houston Dynamo · 4-1-4-1 · Ben Olsen
Jonathan Bond · Felipe Andrade · Lucas Halter · Agustin Resch · Lawrence Ennali · Diadié Samassékou · Mateusz Bogusz · Agustín Bouzat · Héctor Herrera · Guilherme · Ezequiel Ponce
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 12' | ⚽ | Mateusz Bogusz · Houston Dynamo |
| 18' | 🟨 | Ilie Sánchez · Austin |
| 29' | ⚽ | Mateusz Bogusz · Houston Dynamo |
| 32' | ⚽ | Guilherme · Houston Dynamo |
| 42' | 🟨 | Felipe Andrade · Houston Dynamo |
| 62' | 🟨 | Besard Sabović · Austin |
| 62' | 🟨 | Lucas Halter · Houston Dynamo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Dynamo | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 571.00 | 86.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Shell Energy Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 55% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| No | 45% | 48% | 2.20 | value: +5% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Under 9.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | 54% | 1.76 |
| Under 4.5 | 46% | 2.07 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2.60 |
| 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.43 |
| elo | 1482.79 | 1431.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.94 | -16.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.08 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| league points | 23.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.06 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -0.04 |
| solidity v1 | 0.47 | -1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.61 | 29.66 |
| state index | 0.22 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 0.76 |