← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Jul 26, 12:30 AM UTC · ref: L. Hernandez
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Under in Minnesota United FC v Vancouver Whitecaps · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.31 | Main (your slate bets) | $8.47 | 2.31 | $11.10 | +5% | +11.10 | won |
leg 1: Minnesota United FC win in Minnesota United FC v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 3.85 lost leg 2: Austin win in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Match result @ 5.00 lost leg 3: Under in New York Red Bulls v Charlotte · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.55 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 49.09 | $96.17 | +96% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 3.95 | Dutch cover | $2.53 | 3.95 | $7.46 | — | +7.46 | won |
Minnesota United FC win in Minnesota United FC v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 3.85 | Dutch cover | $17.47 | 3.85 | $49.79 | +31% | -17.47 | lost |
Minnesota United FC win in Minnesota United FC v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 3.85 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 3.85 | $14.25 | +31% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in Minnesota United FC v Vancouver Whitecaps · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.45 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.45 | $14.50 | +10% | +14.50 | won |
Minnesota United FC win in Minnesota United FC v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 3.72 | Main (your slate bets) | $21.37 | 3.72 | $58.13 | +24% | -21.37 | lost |
Minnesota United FC win in Minnesota United FC v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 3.85 | Portfolio | $10.88 | 3.85 | $31.01 | +14% | -10.88 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps win | 49% | 40% | 2.05 | fair |
| Minnesota United FC win | 26% | 34% | 3.97 | value: +36% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.97 | fair |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 55% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 45% | 2.45 | value: +10% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps win | 2.00 | 1.90 | -5.0% | |
| Draw | 3.74 | 3.80 | +1.7% | |
| Minnesota United FC win | 3.30 | 3.65 | +10.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Minnesota United FC · 5-3-2 · Cameron Knowles
Drake Callender · Kyle Duncan · Jefferson Díaz · Michael Boxall · Morris Duggan · Anthony Markanich · Joaquín Pereyra · Owen Gene · Wil Trapp · Kelvin Yeboah · Mamadou Dieng
Vancouver Whitecaps · 4-2-3-1 · Jesper Sorensen
Yohei Takaoka · Mathías Laborda · Ranko Veselinović · Tristan Blackmon · Tate Johnson · Oliver Larraz · Andrés Cubas · Cheick Tidiane Sabaly · Thomas Müller · Jeevan Badwal · Brian White
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 17' | 🟨 | Mamadou Dieng · Minnesota United FC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Jeevan Badwal · Vancouver Whitecaps |
| 87' | 🟨 | Michael Boxall · Minnesota United FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 175.00 | 206.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Allianz Field |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 61% | 59% | 1.57 | fair |
| No | 39% | 41% | 2.55 | value: +6% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Under 9.5 | 48% | 2.10 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 4.5 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| 6.20 |
| 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 2.99 |
| elo | 1522.56 | 1643.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.61 | -4.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.25 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 22.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 2.13 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | 1.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.34 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 28.03 | 26.46 |
| state index | -0.67 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.84 |