← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Jul 25, 10:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Mendoza
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Under in New York Red Bulls v Charlotte · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.55 won leg 2: Under in Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.10 lost | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 7.91 | $34.52 | +21% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in New York Red Bulls v Charlotte · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.55 won leg 2: Under in Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.10 lost | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 7.91 | $34.52 | +21% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Minnesota United FC win in Minnesota United FC v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 3.85 lost leg 2: Austin win in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Match result @ 5.00 lost leg 3: Under in New York Red Bulls v Charlotte · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.55 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 49.09 | $96.17 | +96% | -2.00 | lost |
Under in New York Red Bulls v Charlotte · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.55 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.55 | $15.50 | +20% | +15.50 | won |
Under in New York Red Bulls v Charlotte · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.55 | Portfolio | $12.27 | 2.55 | $19.02 | +8% | +19.02 | won |
No in New York Red Bulls v Charlotte · Both teams to score @ 2.50 | Main (your slate bets) | $17.26 | 2.50 | $25.89 | +10% | +25.89 | won |
Under in New York Red Bulls v Charlotte · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.49 | Main (your slate bets) | $20.31 | 2.49 | $30.26 | +20% | +30.26 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls win | 43% | 42% | 2.30 | fair |
| Charlotte win | 32% | 32% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.90 | fair |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 53% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 47% | 2.70 | value: +27% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte win | 2.89 | 2.90 | +0.3% | |
| Draw | 3.71 | 3.80 | +2.4% | |
| New York Red Bulls win | 2.20 | 2.23 | +1.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 7' | ⚽ | Pep Biel · Charlotte |
| 12' | ⚽ | Ashley Westwood · Charlotte |
| 48' | 🟨 | Liel Abada · Charlotte |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jorge Ruvalcaba · New York Red Bulls |
| 77' | 🟨 | Adri Mehmeti · New York Red Bulls |
| 85' | 🟨 | Omar Valencia · New York Red Bulls |
| 90' | 🟨 | Justin Che · New York Red Bulls |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adri Mehmeti · New York Red Bulls |
| 90' | 🟥 | Adri Mehmeti · New York Red Bulls |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Red Bulls | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 905.00 | 967.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Sports Illustrated Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 64% | 57% | 1.50 | fair |
| No | 36% | 43% | 2.75 | value: +19% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Under 9.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | 50% | 1.87 |
| Under 4.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4.40 |
| 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.46 |
| elo | 1464.28 | 1507.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.95 | -0.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.97 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| league points | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 2.93 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.77 |
| solidity v1 | -1.05 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.12 | 29.43 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.82 |