← Major League Soccer 2026 · Fri, Sep 18, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| New York City FC win | 51% | 53% | 1.83 | fair |
| New York Red Bulls win | 27% | 22% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand