← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Aug 2, 02:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Dickerson
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Under in Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.72 lost leg 2: New England Revolution win in CF Montreal v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.54 lost leg 3: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.28 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 21.95 | $41.91 | +85% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders · Match result @ 4.11 | Dutch cover | $2.43 | 4.11 | $7.56 | — | -2.43 | lost |
Seattle Sounders win in Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders · Match result @ 3.10 | Dutch cover | $17.57 | 3.10 | $36.90 | +6% | -17.57 | lost |
Under in Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.72 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.72 | $17.20 | +26% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders · Match result @ 4.11 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.11 | $15.55 | +6% | -5.00 | lost |
No in Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders · Both teams to score @ 2.75 | Main (your slate bets) | $22.72 | 2.75 | $39.76 | +18% | -22.72 | lost |
Under in Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.66 | Main (your slate bets) | $22.72 | 2.66 | $37.72 | +24% | -22.72 | lost |
Under in Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.75 | Portfolio | $17.55 | 2.75 | $30.71 | +12% | -17.55 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers win | 43% | 40% | 2.37 | fair |
| Seattle Sounders win | 32% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 4.11 | value: +6% |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 54% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 46% | 2.75 | value: +28% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders win | 2.71 | 2.96 | +9.2% | |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.87 | +1.6% | |
| Portland Timbers win | 2.28 | 2.13 | -6.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Portland Timbers · 4-1-4-1 · Marti Cifuentes
James Pantemis · Brandon Bye · Finn Surman · Kamal Miller · Jímer Fory · Diego Chará · Ariel Lassiter · Cole Bassett · David Pereira Da Costa · Kristoffer Velde · Kevin Kelsy
Seattle Sounders · 4-2-3-1 · Brian Schmetzer
Andrew Thomas · Paul Arriola · Kim Kee-hee · Stuart Hawkins · Nouhou Tolo · Snyder Brunell · Peter Kingston · Jesús Ferreira · Albert Rusnák · Paul Rothrock · Osaze De Rosario
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portland Timbers | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1005.00 | 3653.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Providence Park |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 66% | 57% | 1.44 | fair |
| No | 34% | 43% | 2.88 | value: +23% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 10.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Over 10.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 55% | 1.80 |
| Over 4.5 | 45% | 2.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7.00 |
| 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.74 |
| elo | 1479.10 | 1534.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.25 | -89.37 |
| eye test v1 | 1.12 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.78 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 1.34 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 21.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.50 |
| skill v1 | 1.39 | 0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.20 | 26.23 |
| state index | 0.17 | -1.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 1.01 |