← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 1, 11:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Cristopher Sánchez (ERA 2.73, WHIP 1.2) · home: Shane Baz (ERA 3.98, WHIP 1.39)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Under in Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.72 lost leg 2: New England Revolution win in CF Montreal v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.54 lost leg 3: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.28 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 21.95 | $41.91 | +85% | -2.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.28 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.28 | $12.80 | +17% | -10.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.19 | $11.87 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 56% | 1.77 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 44% | 2.28 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.70 | 1.70 | 0.0% | |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 2.19 | 2.19 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Baltimore Orioles | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| elo | 1507.46 | 1528.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.15 | -6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.50 |