← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Aug 1, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Marrufo
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New England Revolution win in CF Montreal v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.54 | Portfolio | $10.78 | 3.54 | $27.38 | +11% | -10.78 | lost |
leg 1: Under in Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.72 lost leg 2: New England Revolution win in CF Montreal v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.54 lost leg 3: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.28 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 21.95 | $41.91 | +85% | -2.00 | lost |
New England Revolution win in CF Montreal v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.54 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 3.54 | $12.70 | +26% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in CF Montreal v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.60 | Dutch cover | $2.78 | 3.60 | $7.23 | — | +7.23 | won |
New England Revolution win in CF Montreal v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.06 | Dutch cover | $17.22 | 3.06 | $35.47 | +9% | -17.22 | lost |
Under in CF Montreal v New England Revolution · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.17 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.17 | $11.70 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal win | 43% | 38% | 2.27 | fair |
| New England Revolution win | 31% | 36% | 3.54 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.68 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 53% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 47% | 2.17 | fair |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution win | 2.95 | 3.40 | +15.3% | |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | 0.0% | |
| CF Montreal win | 2.20 | 2.05 | -6.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Carles Gil · New England Revolution |
| 36' | ⚽ | Dor Turgeman · New England Revolution |
| 36' | 🟨 | Sebastian Breza · CF Montreal |
| 52' | ⚽ | Brayan Vera · CF Montreal |
| 59' | ⚽ | Prince-Osei Owusu · CF Montreal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CF Montreal | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 122.00 | 181.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Saputo Stadium |
| 7.20 |
| 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.67 | 2.57 |
| elo | 1390.35 | 1467.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.42 | -3.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.81 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.26 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.80 |
| league points | 15.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 28.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.81 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | 0.75 |
| solidity v1 | 0.00 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.91 | 26.39 |
| state index | -0.98 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.21 |