← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 02:30 AM UTC · ref: E. Arreguin
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 5.40 lost leg 2: Orlando City SC win in San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 5.30 won leg 3: Under in Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.61 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 74.70 | $147.40 | +182% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 5.00 | Dutch cover | $2.00 | 5.00 | $8.00 | — | -2.00 | lost |
Orlando City SC win in San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 5.30 | Dutch cover | $18.00 | 5.30 | $77.40 | +29% | +77.40 | won |
Orlando City SC win in San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 5.30 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 5.30 | $21.50 | +29% | +21.50 | won |
Draw in San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 5.00 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 5.00 | $20.00 | +2% | -5.00 | lost |
Orlando City SC win in San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 5.30 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 5.30 | $21.50 | +29% | +21.50 | won |
leg 1: Yes in San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC · Both teams to score @ 1.44 lost leg 2: Over in Los Angeles Galaxy v St. Louis City · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.57 won leg 3: Los Angeles FC win in Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 1.72 won | Main (your slate bets) | $5.00 | 3.89 | $14.44 | +6% | -5.00 | lost |
Orlando City SC win in San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 4.91 | Main (your slate bets) | $12.82 | 4.91 | $50.13 | +17% | +50.13 | won |
Orlando City SC win in San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 5.60 | Portfolio | $4.64 | 5.60 | $21.34 | +17% | +21.34 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes win | 63% | 55% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.30 | value: +9% |
| Orlando City SC win | 18% | 24% | 6.20 | value: +51% |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 71% | 73% | 1.37 | fair |
| Under | 29% | 27% | 3.65 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC win | 5.70 | 5.00 | -12.3% | |
| Draw | 5.30 | 4.80 | -9.4% | |
| San Jose Earthquakes win | 1.42 | 1.53 | +7.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Orlando City SC · 4-4-2 · Oscar Pareja
Maxime Crépeau · Griffin Dorsey · David Brekalo · Robin Jansson · Adrián Marín · Iván Angulo · Braian Ojeda · Eduard Atuesta · Tiago Souza · Antoine Griezmann · Justin Ellis
San Jose Earthquakes · 4-2-3-1 · Bruce Arena
Angus Gunn · Benjamin Kikanović · Daniel Munie · Reid Roberts · Jamar Ricketts · Beau Leroux · Ronaldo Vieira · Ousseni Bouda · Nick Fernandez · Timo Werner · Preston Judd
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Jose Earthquakes | Orlando City SC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 568.00 | 2426.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 9.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | PayPal Park |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 66% | 70% | 1.44 | fair |
| No | 34% | 30% | 2.90 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 10.5 | 50% | 1.91 |
| Under 10.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over 4.5 | 47% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 7.00 |
| 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.81 | 2.82 |
| elo | 1539.78 | 1474.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.34 | -10.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.69 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| league points | 32.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 27.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 0.93 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | 0.50 |
| solidity v1 | -1.62 | -2.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 27.81 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.19 | 2.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.83 |