San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 02:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
San Jose Earthquakes win	65%	56%	1.47	fair
Draw	19%	20%	5.30	value: +8%
Orlando City SC win	16%	24%	6.20	value: +49%

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	73%	73%	1.32	fair
Under	27%	27%	3.65	fair

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	66%	70%	1.44	fair
No	34%	30%	2.80	fair

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Orlando City SC win	5.70	5.88	+3.1%
Draw	5.30	5.15	-2.8%
San Jose Earthquakes win	1.42	1.41	-1.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

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