Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 02:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Los Angeles FC win	56%	58%	1.72	fair
Draw	23%	23%	4.20	fair
Real Salt Lake win	21%	19%	4.50	fair

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	61%	56%	1.55	fair
Under	39%	44%	2.52	value: +12%

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	60%	54%	1.57	fair
No	40%	46%	2.40	value: +9%

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Real Salt Lake win	4.50	4.45	-1.1%
Draw	4.20	4.15	-1.2%
Los Angeles FC win	1.61	1.64	+1.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

BMO Stadium