← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 02:30 AM UTC · ref: P. Lauziere
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Over 5.5 in Botafogo FR v EC Vitória · Over/Under total cards @ 2.20 lost leg 2: Under in Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.61 lost | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 5.74 | $23.71 | — | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 5.40 lost leg 2: Orlando City SC win in San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 5.30 won leg 3: Under in Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.61 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 74.70 | $147.40 | +182% | -2.00 | lost |
Under in Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.61 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.61 | $16.10 | +16% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Yes in San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC · Both teams to score @ 1.44 lost leg 2: Over in Los Angeles Galaxy v St. Louis City · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.57 won leg 3: Los Angeles FC win in Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 1.72 won | Main (your slate bets) | $5.00 | 3.89 | $14.44 | +6% | -5.00 | lost |
No in Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake · Both teams to score @ 2.25 | Main (your slate bets) | $11.69 | 2.25 | $14.61 | +5% | -11.69 | lost |
Under in Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.46 | Main (your slate bets) | $21.13 | 2.46 | $30.85 | +10% | -21.13 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC win | 55% | 59% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.30 | fair |
| Real Salt Lake win | 22% | 19% | 4.65 | fair |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 55% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 45% | 2.61 | value: +17% |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Salt Lake win | 4.50 | 4.35 | -3.3% | |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.10 | -2.4% | |
| Los Angeles FC win | 1.61 | 1.71 | +6.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Los Angeles FC · 4-3-3 · Marc Dos Santos
Hugo Lloris · Ryan Hollingshead · Ryan Porteous · Nkosi Tafari · Yevhen Cheberko · Mathieu Choinière · Eddie Segura · Mark Delgado · Jacob Shaffelburg · Son Heung-min · Denis Bouanga
Real Salt Lake · 3-4-2-1 · Pablo Mastroeni
Rafael Cabral · DeAndre Yedlin · Philip Quinton · Lukas Engel · Zavier Gozo · Stijn Spierings · Noel Caliskan · Juan Sanabria · Diego Luna · Morgan Guilavogui · Sergi Solans
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 11' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Los Angeles FC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Denis Bouanga · Los Angeles FC |
| 68' | ⚽ (og) | DeAndre Yedlin · Los Angeles FC |
| 86' | ⚽ | Lukas Engel · Real Salt Lake |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles FC | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 203.00 | 1817.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | BMO Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 61% | 54% | 1.57 | fair |
| No | 39% | 46% | 2.45 | value: +13% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Over 9.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Under 4.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7.60 |
| 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 2.83 |
| elo | 1613.94 | 1517.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.32 | 22.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.88 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 27.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.60 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 4.99 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.86 |
| skill v1 | 1.14 | 0.64 |
| solidity v1 | 0.43 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 31.28 | 26.79 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.44 |