← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 02:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Badawi
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Galaxy win in Los Angeles Galaxy v St. Louis City · Match result @ 51.00 | Dd live | $10.00 | 51.00 | $500.00 | +56% | -10.00 | lost |
Los Angeles Galaxy win in Los Angeles Galaxy v St. Louis City · Match result @ 2.01 | Main (your slate bets) | $10.28 | 2.01 | $10.38 | +4% | -10.28 | lost |
leg 1: Yes in San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC · Both teams to score @ 1.44 lost leg 2: Over in Los Angeles Galaxy v St. Louis City · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.57 won leg 3: Los Angeles FC win in Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 1.72 won | Main (your slate bets) | $5.00 | 3.89 | $14.44 | +6% | -5.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Galaxy win | 48% | 51% | 2.04 | value: +5% |
| St. Louis City win | 27% | 26% | 3.65 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 65% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 35% | 2.55 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City win | 3.30 | 3.45 | +4.5% | |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.79 | -1.4% | |
| Los Angeles Galaxy win | 1.94 | 1.96 | +0.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
St. Louis City · 3-4-1-2 · Yoann Damet
Roman Bürki · Lukas MacNaughton · Timo Baumgartl · Dante Polvara · Mykhi Joyner · Daniel Edelman · Christopher Durkin · Tomas Totland · Marcel Hartel · Eduard Löwen · Simon Becher
Los Angeles Galaxy · 4-1-4-1 · Greg Vanney
JT Marcinkowski · Miki Yamane · Jakob Glesnes · Carlos Garcés · John Nelson · Justin Haak · Joseph Paintsil · Elijah Wynder · Lucas Sanabria · Harbor Miller · Marco Reus
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Galaxy | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2029.00 | 172.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Dignity Health Sports Park |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 63% | 64% | 1.51 | fair |
| No | 37% | 36% | 2.63 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 53% | 1.91 |
| Under 9.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 4.5 | 48% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 5.80 |
| 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.50 |
| elo | 1478.19 | 1455.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.73 | 46.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.50 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.97 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 4.99 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.27 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | 0.45 |
| solidity v1 | -0.41 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.43 | 27.81 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.61 |