Los Angeles Galaxy v St. Louis City

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 02:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Los Angeles Galaxy win	48%	53%	1.97	value: +4%
St. Louis City win	27%	25%	3.65	fair
Draw	25%	22%	3.90	fair

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	61%	65%	1.55	fair
Under	39%	35%	2.52	fair

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	63%	64%	1.50	fair
No	37%	36%	2.55	fair

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Dignity Health Sports Park