← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 07:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Gage Jump (ERA 3.78, WHIP 1.32) · home: Merrill Kelly (ERA 5.2, WHIP 1.49)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 5.40 lost leg 2: Orlando City SC win in San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 5.30 won leg 3: Under in Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.61 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 74.70 | $147.40 | +182% | -2.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 5.40 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 5.40 | $44.00 | +88% | -10.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.89 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 1.89 | $8.90 | +23% | +8.90 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 5.40 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 5.40 | $44.00 | +88% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 5.40 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 5.40 | $44.00 | +88% | -10.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +14% | +7.63 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 54% | 1.89 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 46% | 5.77 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics win | 1.13 | 2.02 | +79.3% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.06 | 1.83 | +72.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | — | 15 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arizona Diamondbacks | Oakland Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| elo | 1509.41 | 1442.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.91 | -2.10 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 7.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.60 |