← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Aug 30, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FC Cincinnati win in Nashville SC v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.20 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.20 | $16.00 | +4% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC win | 52% | 52% | 1.92 | fair |
| FC Cincinnati win | 24% | 25% | 4.20 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.22 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati win | 3.45 | 3.90 | +13.0% | |
| Draw | 3.85 | 4.05 | +5.2% | |
| Nashville SC win | 1.92 | 1.80 | -6.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Geodis Park |