← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Jul 26, 02:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Fierro
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Under in Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.70 lost leg 2: Under in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.88 lost | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 10.66 | $48.28 | +33% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.88 lost leg 2: Sporting Kansas City win in Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 12.00 lost leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Washington Nationals v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 76.03 | $150.06 | +57% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 7.00 | Dutch cover | $1.43 | 7.00 | $8.58 | — | -1.43 | lost |
Sporting Kansas City win in Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 12.00 | Dutch cover | $18.57 | 12.00 | $204.27 | +17% | -18.57 | lost |
Sporting Kansas City win in Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 12.00 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 12.00 | $55.00 | +17% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.70 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 3.70 | $27.00 | +11% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 7.00 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 7.00 | $30.00 | +6% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.86 | Main (your slate bets) | $1.00 | 6.86 | $5.86 | +1% | -1.00 | lost |
Sporting Kansas City win in Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 12.00 | Portfolio | $1.57 | 12.00 | $17.27 | +8% | -1.57 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC win | 78% | 75% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 15% | 8.00 | value: +20% |
| Sporting Kansas City win | 9% | 10% | 14.00 | value: +37% |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 70% | 1.34 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 30% | 3.70 | value: +11% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City win | 12.00 | 10.00 | -16.7% | |
| Draw | 7.00 | 6.50 | -7.1% | |
| Los Angeles FC win | 1.18 | 1.24 | +5.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Los Angeles FC · 4-3-3 · Marc Dos Santos
Hugo Lloris · Ryan Hollingshead · Ryan Porteous · Aaron Long · Yevhen Cheberko · Timothy Tillman · Mathieu Choinière · Mark Delgado · David Martínez Morales · Son Heung-min · Denis Bouanga
Sporting Kansas City · 4-2-3-1 · Raphael Wicky
Stefan Cleveland · Jacob Davis · Or Blorian · Wyatt Meyer · Emir Karić · Zorhan Bassong · Lasse Berg Johnsen · Stephen Afrifa · Manu García · Calvin Harris · Dejan Joveljić
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles FC | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 206.00 | 175.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | BMO Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 55% | 56% | 1.77 | fair |
| No | 45% | 44% | 2.15 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Under 9.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| 7.00 |
| 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 1.73 |
| elo | 1622.62 | 1353.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.40 | 33.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | 0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 30.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 28.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 0.88 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.25 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 30.36 | 27.00 |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.48 |