← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 25, 08:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Mitch Bratt (ERA 5.06, WHIP 1.78) · home: Foster Griffin (ERA 2.68, WHIP 1.03)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Under in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.88 lost leg 2: Sporting Kansas City win in Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 12.00 lost leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Washington Nationals v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 76.03 | $150.06 | +57% | -2.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Washington Nationals v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Washington Nationals v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.51 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 53% | 1.86 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 47% | 2.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.90 | 2.16 | +13.9% | |
| Washington Nationals win | 1.79 | 1.73 | -3.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1472.04 | 1519.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.67 | 6.54 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.89 | 0.89 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 6.70 |