← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Jul 26, 02:30 AM UTC · ref: E. Arreguin
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Salt Lake win in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 41.00 | Fade goal live | $5.00 | 41.00 | $200.00 | +58% | -5.00 | lost |
Real Salt Lake win in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 7.50 | Fade goal live | $5.00 | 7.50 | $32.50 | +92% | -5.00 | lost |
Portland Timbers win in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 6.00 | Dd live | $10.00 | 6.00 | $50.00 | +20% | +50.00 | won |
leg 1: Under in Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.70 lost leg 2: Under in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.88 lost | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 10.66 | $48.28 | +33% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.88 lost leg 2: Sporting Kansas City win in Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 12.00 lost leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Washington Nationals v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 76.03 | $150.06 | +57% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.00 | Dutch cover | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | -2.50 | lost |
Portland Timbers win in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 2.48 | Dutch cover | $17.50 | 2.48 | $25.90 | +11% | +25.90 | won |
Portland Timbers win in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 2.48 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 2.48 | $7.40 | +11% | +7.40 | won |
Under in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.88 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.88 | $18.80 | +19% | -10.00 | lost |
No in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Both teams to score @ 2.75 | Main (your slate bets) | $11.27 | 2.75 | $19.72 | +7% | -11.27 | lost |
Portland Timbers win in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 2.43 | Main (your slate bets) | $16.21 | 2.43 | $23.18 | +9% | +23.18 | won |
Under in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.71 | Main (your slate bets) | $18.91 | 2.71 | $32.34 | +12% | -18.91 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers win | 40% | 45% | 2.48 | value: +12% |
| Real Salt Lake win | 35% | 31% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 59% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 41% | 2.88 | value: +19% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Salt Lake win | 2.65 | 2.62 | -1.1% | |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.80 | -1.3% | |
| Portland Timbers win | 2.34 | 2.40 | +2.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Real Salt Lake · 3-4-3 · Pablo Mastroeni
Rafael Cabral · DeAndre Yedlin · Philip Quinton · Lukas Engel · Zavier Gozo · Stijn Spierings · Noel Caliskan · Juan Sanabria · Diego Luna · Sergi Solans · Morgan Guilavogui
Portland Timbers · 4-1-4-1 · Jack Cassidy
James Pantemis · Brandon Bye · Finn Surman · Kamal Miller · Jímer Fory · Diego Chará · Ariel Lassiter · Cole Bassett · David Pereira Da Costa · Kristoffer Velde · Felipe Mora
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portland Timbers | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 998.00 | 1820.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Providence Park |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 67% | 61% | 1.41 | fair |
| No | 33% | 39% | 2.88 | value: +13% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under 9.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | 50% | 1.87 |
| Under 4.5 | 50% | 1.87 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6.20 |
| 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 3.63 |
| elo | 1469.69 | 1509.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.18 | 2.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 1.23 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| league points | 18.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.73 |
| skill v1 | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| solidity v1 | -0.94 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.93 | 27.57 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.20 |