Columbus Crew v New York City FC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Columbus Crew win	48%	47%	1.97	fair
New York City FC win	26%	28%	3.75	value: +4%
Draw	26%	26%	3.80	fair

across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	57%	53%	1.70	fair
Under	43%	47%	2.22	value: +4%

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	59%	56%	1.62	fair
No	41%	44%	2.30	fair

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

ScottsMiracle-Gro Field