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Columbus Crew 1–2 New York City FC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Hernandez

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Under in Columbus Crew v New York City FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20
WC KO unders$10.002.20$12.00+3%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Columbus Crew win48%47%2.01fair
New York City FC win26%28%3.75value: +4%
Draw26%26%3.80fair

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Over55%53%1.84fair
Under45%47%2.22value: +3%

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Yes58%56%1.70fair
No42%44%2.30fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 9.550%1.98
Over 9.550%2.00

across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 4.552%1.87
Over 4.548%2.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
New York City FC win3.523.60+2.3%
Draw3.633.67+1.1%
Columbus Crew win1.951.950.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Timeline

28'⚽ (pen)Nicolás Fernández · New York City FC
40'🟨Tayvon Gray · New York City FC
57'🟨Jamal Thiaré · Columbus Crew
60'🟨Maximilian Arfsten · Columbus Crew
70'⚽Agustin Ojeda · New York City FC
82'🟨Taha Habroune · Columbus Crew
90'⚽ (pen)Dániel Gazdag · Columbus Crew
90'🟨James Sands · New York City FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricColumbus CrewNew York City FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.46
box share (last 5)0.660.82
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days171.00171.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-3.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.806.80
corners for avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueScottsMiracle-Gro Field
4.00
3.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.601.87
elo1520.431541.25
elo momentum (last 5)-28.35-5.43
eye test v1-0.48-0.13
eye trend v1-0.29-0.35
first sub minute (last 10)61.6063.30
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.32
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.640.68
league points16.0019.00
league rank22.0018.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.6085.60
possession avg (last 5)62.6055.40
rest days30.0030.00
scorer concentration0.260.36
season ppg1.071.27
skill v11.030.54
solidity v1-0.64-0.08
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.00
squad age27.8925.52
state index-0.10-0.02
sterile dominance v11.731.31
threat rate (last 10)0.210.20
threat rate (last 3)0.140.15
threat rate (last 5)0.160.16
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.521.51
xg for avg (last 5)1.141.06