← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Aug 2, 12:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Boiko
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 41.00 | Fade goal live | $5.00 | 41.00 | $200.00 | +207% | -5.00 | lost |
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 41.00 | Dd live | $10.00 | 41.00 | $400.00 | +207% | -10.00 | lost |
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 3.50 | Portfolio | $10.14 | 3.50 | $25.35 | +10% | -10.14 | lost |
Draw in Sporting Kansas City v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 3.75 | Dutch cover | $2.67 | 3.75 | $7.34 | — | -2.67 | lost |
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 3.36 | Dutch cover | $17.33 | 3.36 | $40.90 | +16% | -17.33 | lost |
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 3.36 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 3.36 | $11.80 | +16% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in Sporting Kansas City v Houston Dynamo · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.45 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.45 | $14.50 | +5% | +14.50 | won |
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 3.37 | Main (your slate bets) | $17.08 | 3.37 | $40.48 | +14% | -17.08 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo win | 43% | 41% | 2.31 | fair |
| Sporting Kansas City win | 30% | 34% | 3.50 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 43% | 2.45 | value: +5% |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo win | 2.10 | 2.24 | +6.7% | |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.45 | -8.0% | |
| Sporting Kansas City win | 3.10 | 3.10 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Houston Dynamo · 4-2-3-1 · Ben Olsen
Jonathan Bond · Lawrence Ennali · Lucas Halter · Agustin Resch · Felipe Andrade · Artur · Héctor Herrera · Jack McGlynn · Agustín Bouzat · Guilherme · Ezequiel Ponce
Sporting Kansas City · 4-2-3-1 · Raphael Wicky
Stefan Cleveland · Jacob Davis · Moises Mosquera · Or Blorian · Emir Karić · Lasse Berg Johnsen · Zorhan Bassong · Capita · Kwaku Agyabeng · Calvin Harris · Dejan Joveljić
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Kansas City | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 182.00 | 578.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Children's Mercy Park |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 62% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| No | 38% | 40% | 2.63 | value: +4% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over 9.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over 4.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| 4.60 |
| 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.73 |
| elo | 1348.78 | 1494.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.13 | 8.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.25 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| league points | 14.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 29.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 89.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 6.92 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.63 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | 0.70 |
| solidity v1 | -0.68 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.23 | 29.24 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.24 |