New York City FC v Philadelphia Union

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Aug 16, 10:30 PM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Draw in New York City FC v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 3.80	Dutch cover	$2.63	3.80	$7.36	—	—	pending
New York City FC win in New York City FC v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 2.37	Dutch cover	$17.37	2.37	$23.80	+7%	—	pending
Philadelphia Union win in New York City FC v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 3.00	Steam chaser	$5.00	3.00	$10.00	—	—	pending
Under in New York City FC v Philadelphia Union · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.18	WC KO unders	$10.00	2.18	$11.80	+6%	—	pending
Under in New York City FC v Philadelphia Union · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20	Main (your slate bets)	$16.91	2.20	$20.29	+8%	—	pending
Philadelphia Union win in New York City FC v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 4.00	Main (your slate bets)	$13.15	4.00	$39.45	+14%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
New York City FC win	47%	45%	2.37	value: +7%
Philadelphia Union win	29%	29%	4.65	value: +33%
Draw	25%	26%	4.20	value: +10%

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	57%	51%	1.67	fair
Under	43%	49%	2.28	value: +11%

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Philadelphia Union win	4.60	2.85	-38.0%
Draw	4.20	3.65	-13.1%
New York City FC win	1.61	2.31	+43.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Yankee Stadium