Charlotte v Atlanta United FC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 12:15 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Charlotte win	56%	54%	1.68	fair
Draw	24%	25%	4.05	fair
Atlanta United FC win	20%	21%	4.90	fair

across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	57%	51%	1.70	fair
Under	43%	49%	2.22	value: +9%

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	56%	52%	1.70	fair
No	44%	48%	2.15	value: +4%

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Bank of America Stadium