← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 12:15 AM UTC · ref: S. Boiko
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Charlotte win in Charlotte v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 1.84 lost leg 2: Over in CF Montreal v Inter Miami · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.38 lost leg 3: Under in DC United v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.99 lost | Main (your slate bets) | $5.00 | 5.05 | $20.27 | +7% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Charlotte v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 3.40 | Mad game live | $117.02 | 3.40 | $280.85 | -17% | +280.85 | won |
Charlotte win in Charlotte v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 2.20 | Mad game live | $180.85 | 2.20 | $217.02 | +19% | -180.85 | lost |
Draw in Charlotte v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 3.75 | Dutch cover | $2.67 | 3.75 | $7.34 | — | +7.34 | won |
Charlotte win in Charlotte v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 1.97 | Dutch cover | $17.33 | 1.97 | $16.81 | +7% | -17.33 | lost |
Under in Charlotte v Atlanta United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.22 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.22 | $12.20 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in Charlotte v Atlanta United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.19 | Main (your slate bets) | $23.88 | 2.19 | $28.42 | +10% | -23.88 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte win | 52% | 54% | 1.97 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 4.05 | fair |
| Atlanta United FC win | 23% | 21% | 4.90 | fair |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 50% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 50% | 2.22 | value: +10% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC win | 4.75 | 3.79 | -20.2% | |
| Draw | 3.94 | 3.63 | -7.9% | |
| Charlotte win | 1.65 | 1.93 | +16.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Charlotte · 4-4-2 · Dean Smith
Kristijan Kahlina · Will Cleary · Morrison Agyemang · Tim Ream · Harry Toffolo · Kerwin Calderón Vargas · Ashley Westwood · Luca De La Torre · Liel Abada · Pep Biel · Archie Goodwin
Atlanta United FC · 4-1-4-1 · Gerardo Martino
Lucas Hoyos · Tomás Jacob · Enea Mihaj · Junior Alonso · Elías Báez · William Reilly · Aleksey Miranchuk · Cooper Sanchez · Tristan Muyumba · Miguel Almirón · Fafà Picault
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 16' | ⚽ | Kerwin Calderón Vargas · Charlotte |
| 22' | 🟨 | William Reilly · Atlanta United FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Liel Abada · Charlotte |
| 48' | 🟨 | Aleksei Miranchuk · Atlanta United FC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Elías Báez · Atlanta United FC |
| 76' | ⚽ | Miguel Almirón · Atlanta United FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Nathan Byrne · Charlotte |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tomás Jacob · Atlanta United FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlotte | Atlanta United FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.86 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 965.00 | 599.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Bank of America Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 58% | 52% | 1.70 | fair |
| No | 42% | 48% | 2.32 | value: +12% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 9.5 | 50% | 2.02 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 51% | 1.87 |
| Over 4.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6.00 |
| 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.01 |
| elo | 1512.90 | 1373.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.07 | -1.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 21.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 28.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 5.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.73 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| solidity v1 | 0.61 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 29.76 | 26.80 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.36 |