← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Jul 25, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Da Silva
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in CF Montreal v Inter Miami · Match result @ 4.10 | Dutch cover | $2.44 | 4.10 | $7.56 | — | -2.44 | lost |
Inter Miami win in CF Montreal v Inter Miami · Match result @ 2.17 | Dutch cover | $17.56 | 2.17 | $20.55 | +20% | +20.55 | won |
Inter Miami win in CF Montreal v Inter Miami · Match result @ 2.17 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 2.17 | $5.85 | +20% | +5.85 | won |
Inter Miami win in CF Montreal v Inter Miami · Match result @ 2.17 | Portfolio | $16.76 | 2.17 | $19.61 | +9% | +19.61 | won |
leg 1: Charlotte win in Charlotte v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 1.84 lost leg 2: Over in CF Montreal v Inter Miami · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.38 lost leg 3: Under in DC United v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.99 lost | Main (your slate bets) | $5.00 | 5.05 | $20.27 | +7% | -5.00 | lost |
Inter Miami win in CF Montreal v Inter Miami · Match result @ 2.03 | Main (your slate bets) | $20.31 | 2.03 | $20.92 | +15% | +20.92 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami win | 45% | 55% | 2.21 | value: +22% |
| CF Montreal win | 31% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.15 | fair |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 74% | 1.47 | value: +9% |
| Under | 32% | 26% | 3.13 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami win | 2.05 | 2.15 | +4.9% | |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.92 | +0.6% | |
| CF Montreal win | 3.04 | 2.90 | -4.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 23' | 🟨 | Ian Fray · Inter Miami |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Luis Suárez · Inter Miami |
| 84' | 🟨 | Telasco Segovia · Inter Miami |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CF Montreal | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.50 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 115.00 | 115.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Saputo Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 69% | 71% | 1.42 | fair |
| No | 31% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Under 9.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 4.5 | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| 7.40 |
| 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.83 | 3.13 |
| elo | 1394.23 | 1701.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.87 | 34.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | 2.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.52 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.80 |
| league points | 15.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 27.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 2.13 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 1.64 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | -1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.80 |
| squad age | 25.55 | 26.31 |
| state index | -0.71 | 1.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 2.85 |