← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Jul 25, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Boiko
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in DC United v Toronto FC · Match result @ 3.67 | Dutch cover | $2.72 | 3.67 | $7.26 | — | -2.72 | lost |
Toronto FC win in DC United v Toronto FC · Match result @ 3.52 | Dutch cover | $17.28 | 3.52 | $43.55 | +9% | -17.28 | lost |
Under in DC United v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.00 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.00 | $10.00 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Charlotte win in Charlotte v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 1.84 lost leg 2: Over in CF Montreal v Inter Miami · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.38 lost leg 3: Under in DC United v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.99 lost | Main (your slate bets) | $5.00 | 5.05 | $20.27 | +7% | -5.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC United win | 47% | 42% | 2.14 | fair |
| Toronto FC win | 27% | 31% | 3.96 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.80 | fair |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 49% | 1.94 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 51% | 2.12 | value: +7% |
across 17 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC win | 3.80 | 3.44 | -9.5% | |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.54 | -3.0% | |
| DC United win | 1.90 | 2.07 | +8.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 41' | ⚽ | Kye Rowles · DC United |
| 53' | 🟨 | Louis Munteanu · DC United |
| 76' | ⚽ | Theo Corbeanu · Toronto FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jonathan Osorio · Toronto FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Tai Baribo · DC United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | DC United | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 174.00 | 570.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Audi Field |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 56% | 54% | 1.75 | fair |
| No | 44% | 46% | 2.20 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under 9.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under 4.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5.60 |
| 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.50 |
| elo | 1386.93 | 1411.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.82 | -18.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.06 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| league points | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 26.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -0.09 |
| solidity v1 | -1.37 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.98 | 27.98 |
| state index | -0.65 | -1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.57 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.02 |