← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Aug 2, 12:30 AM UTC · ref: C. Penso
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No in St. Louis City v Real Salt Lake · Both teams to score @ 2.50 | Main (your slate bets) | $6.83 | 2.50 | $10.25 | +4% | -6.83 | lost |
Draw in St. Louis City v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 3.91 | Dutch cover | $2.56 | 3.91 | $7.45 | — | +7.45 | won |
Real Salt Lake win in St. Louis City v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 3.50 | Dutch cover | $17.44 | 3.50 | $43.60 | +12% | -17.44 | lost |
Real Salt Lake win in St. Louis City v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 3.50 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 3.50 | $12.50 | +12% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in St. Louis City v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.55 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.55 | $15.50 | +14% | +15.50 | won |
Under in St. Louis City v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.48 | Main (your slate bets) | $22.65 | 2.48 | $33.52 | +12% | +33.52 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City win | 45% | 43% | 2.23 | fair |
| Real Salt Lake win | 30% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.91 | fair |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 55% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 45% | 2.63 | value: +18% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Salt Lake win | 3.02 | 3.33 | +10.1% | |
| Draw | 3.71 | 3.77 | +1.8% | |
| St. Louis City win | 2.13 | 2.00 | -6.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Real Salt Lake · 3-4-1-2 · Pablo Mastroeni
Rafael Cabral · DeAndre Yedlin · Philip Quinton · Sam Junqua · Zach Booth · Griffin Dillon · Noel Caliskan · Juan Sanabria · Diego Luna · Lineker Rodrigues · Sergi Solans
St. Louis City · 3-4-2-1 · Yoann Damet
Roman Bürki · Lukas MacNaughton · Timo Baumgartl · Dante Polvara · Conrad Wallem · Daniel Edelman · Christopher Durkin · Tomas Totland · Jeong Sang-bin · Eduard Löwen · Simon Becher
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Louis City | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 182.00 | 1827.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | CITYPARK |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 64% | 58% | 1.50 | fair |
| No | 36% | 42% | 2.70 | value: +12% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 10.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Under 10.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over 4.5 | 45% | 2.07 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6.40 |
| 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 3.52 |
| elo | 1481.65 | 1499.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.12 | 5.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.71 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.17 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 25.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.63 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 1.38 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.36 | 27.70 |
| state index | 0.67 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.66 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.11 |