← Major League Soccer 2026 · Fri, Jul 31, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Touchan
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in New York City FC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 4.00 | Mad game live | $146.23 | 4.00 | $438.69 | -6% | +438.69 | won |
New York City FC win in New York City FC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 1.73 | Mad game live | $338.70 | 1.73 | $246.23 | +2% | -338.70 | lost |
Under in New York City FC v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.17 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.17 | $11.70 | +10% | +11.70 | won |
No in New York City FC v Toronto FC · Both teams to score @ 2.00 | Main (your slate bets) | $17.96 | 2.00 | $17.96 | +5% | -17.96 | lost |
Under in New York City FC v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.07 | Main (your slate bets) | $19.32 | 2.07 | $20.67 | +6% | +20.67 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC win | 57% | 59% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.15 | fair |
| Toronto FC win | 19% | 17% | 5.30 | fair |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 49% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 51% | 2.17 | value: +10% |
across 15 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC win | 4.75 | 5.00 | +5.3% | |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.00 | +2.6% | |
| New York City FC win | 1.69 | 1.66 | -1.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 6' | 🟨 | Richie Laryea · Toronto FC |
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolás Fernández · New York City FC |
| 11' | 🟨 | Talles Magno · New York City FC |
| 18' | 🟨 | Nicolás Fernández · New York City FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jonathan Osorio · Toronto FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Đorđe Mihailović · Toronto FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Niklas Dorsch · Toronto FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jackson Gilman · Toronto FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York City FC | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 180.00 | 576.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Yankee Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 54% | 48% | 1.75 | fair |
| No | 46% | 52% | 2.10 | value: +9% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Over 9.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over 4.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1.60 |
| 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.47 |
| elo | 1564.03 | 1402.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.10 | -19.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.06 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 25.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 26.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 0.94 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.18 | 27.84 |
| state index | 0.46 | -1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.88 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.14 |