← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Jul 25, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Touchan
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in Orlando City SC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 4.00 | Dutch cover | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | -2.50 | lost |
Orlando City SC win in Orlando City SC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 3.23 | Dutch cover | $17.50 | 3.23 | $39.02 | +19% | +39.02 | won |
Orlando City SC win in Orlando City SC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 3.23 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 3.23 | $11.15 | +19% | +11.15 | won |
Under in Orlando City SC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.45 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.45 | $14.50 | +0% | +14.50 | won |
Orlando City SC win in Orlando City SC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 3.00 | Main (your slate bets) | $5.62 | 3.00 | $11.24 | +4% | +11.24 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC win | 45% | 38% | 2.27 | fair |
| Orlando City SC win | 31% | 37% | 3.45 | value: +28% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 59% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 41% | 2.55 | value: +5% |
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC win | 2.10 | 2.20 | +4.8% | |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.75 | -2.6% | |
| Orlando City SC win | 3.00 | 2.95 | -1.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 20' | 🟨 | Tiago Souza · Orlando City SC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Tyrese Spicer · Orlando City SC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Orlando City SC | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2428.00 | 754.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Exploria Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 63% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| No | 37% | 38% | 2.63 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Under 9.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 52% | 1.83 |
| Over 4.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4.00 |
| 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.05 |
| elo | 1500.11 | 1612.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.20 | 37.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.15 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.85 |
| league points | 17.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 2.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.14 | 27.93 |
| state index | 0.09 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |