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New England Revolution 4–1 Atlanta United FC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Jul 25, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Lauziere

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Under in New England Revolution v Atlanta United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.08
WC KO unders$10.002.08$10.80+2%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
New England Revolution win47%48%2.05fair
Atlanta United FC win27%26%3.90fair
Draw26%26%3.75fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Over53%51%1.81fair
Under47%49%2.14value: +5%

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Atlanta United FC win3.703.55-4.1%
Draw3.603.600.0%
New England Revolution win1.962.03+3.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Timeline

11'⚽Carles Gil · New England Revolution
20'🟨Alhassan Yusuf · New England Revolution
31'🟨Matthew Edwards · Atlanta United FC
36'⚽Dor Turgeman · New England Revolution
52'🟨William Reilly · Atlanta United FC
56'⚽Peyton Miller · New England Revolution
67'⚽Brooklyn Raines · New England Revolution
70'🟨Wilson Harris · New England Revolution
85'⚽Miguel Almirón · Atlanta United FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNew England RevolutionAtlanta United FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.31
box share (last 5)0.610.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days174.00601.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGillette Stadium
6.80
4.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.723.09
elo1456.831378.41
elo momentum (last 5)-5.29-9.94
eye test v1-0.510.31
eye trend v1-0.00-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)60.6057.60
form points (last 5)7.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.05
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
keeper form v10.820.70
league points26.0012.00
league rank9.0030.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.0011.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)88.2086.00
possession avg (last 5)57.0050.20
rest days3.002.97
scorer concentration0.160.31
season ppg1.730.75
skill v10.740.58
solidity v10.25-0.56
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.40
squad age26.2028.28
state index-0.18-0.84
sterile dominance v11.26-0.06
threat rate (last 10)0.220.30
threat rate (last 3)0.210.29
threat rate (last 5)0.190.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.291.62
xg for avg (last 5)1.011.44