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Toronto FC v Nashville SC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Wed, Sep 9, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
leg 1: Under in Toronto FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.16
leg 2: Under in Houston Dynamo v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.30
Simple parlay$5.004.97$19.84+42%—pending
leg 1: Under in Toronto FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.16
leg 2: Under in Houston Dynamo v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.30
Simple parlay$5.004.97$19.84+42%—pending
leg 1: Real Salt Lake win in Houston Dynamo v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.50
leg 2: FC Cincinnati win in Philadelphia Union v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.50
leg 3: Under in Toronto FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.16
Chaos parlay$2.0043.74$85.48+96%—pending
Under in Toronto FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.16
WC KO unders$10.002.16$11.60+22%—pending
Under in Toronto FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.16
Portfolio$11.952.16$13.86+8%—pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Nashville SC win42%43%2.31fair
Toronto FC win32%29%3.17fair
Draw26%28%3.80value: +7%

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Over58%44%1.67fair
Under42%56%2.28value: +28%

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Nashville SC win2.232.26+1.6%
Draw3.673.50-4.8%
Toronto FC win2.882.93+1.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBMO Field