← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Jul 25, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Ford
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia Union win in Philadelphia Union v Seattle Sounders · Match result @ 2.09 | Steam chaser | $5.00 | 2.09 | $5.45 | — | +5.45 | won |
Under in Philadelphia Union v Seattle Sounders · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.29 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.90 | +15% | +12.90 | won |
No in Philadelphia Union v Seattle Sounders · Both teams to score @ 2.25 | Main (your slate bets) | $11.42 | 2.25 | $14.28 | +6% | +14.28 | won |
Under in Philadelphia Union v Seattle Sounders · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.15 | Main (your slate bets) | $20.31 | 2.15 | $23.36 | +12% | +23.36 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union win | 44% | 44% | 2.27 | fair |
| Seattle Sounders win | 30% | 30% | 3.47 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.85 | fair |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 50% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 50% | 2.38 | value: +20% |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders win | 2.92 | 3.38 | +15.4% | |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.67 | +3.7% | |
| Philadelphia Union win | 2.21 | 2.03 | -8.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 12' | 🟨 | Hassani Dotson · Seattle Sounders |
| 31' | ⚽ | Milan Iloski · Philadelphia Union |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Union | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 570.00 | 3645.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Subaru Park |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 60% | 54% | 1.58 | fair |
| No | 40% | 46% | 2.45 | value: +13% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Under 9.5 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4 | 53% | 1.77 |
| Under 4 | 47% | 2.02 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| 5.40 |
| 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 2.46 |
| elo | 1489.75 | 1544.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.66 | -73.19 |
| eye test v1 | 1.59 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.67 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.70 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.26 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| league points | 10.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 30.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 0.89 |
| solidity v1 | -1.34 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.27 | 26.86 |
| state index | -0.19 | -1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.51 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.22 | 1.62 |