Minnesota United FC v Atlanta United FC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Aug 20, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Under in Minnesota United FC v Atlanta United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.28 leg 2: Under in Colorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.28	Simple parlay	$5.00	5.20	$20.99	+9%	—	pending
leg 1: Under in Minnesota United FC v Atlanta United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.28 leg 2: Under in Colorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.28	Simple parlay	$5.00	5.20	$20.99	+9%	—	pending
Under in Minnesota United FC v Atlanta United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.28	WC KO unders	$10.00	2.28	$12.80	+7%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Minnesota United FC win	54%	56%	1.81	fair
Draw	24%	24%	4.00	fair
Atlanta United FC win	22%	20%	4.65	fair

across 16 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	57%	53%	1.69	fair
Under	43%	47%	2.28	value: +7%

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Atlanta United FC win	4.50	4.20	-6.7%
Draw	3.98	3.90	-1.9%
Minnesota United FC win	1.67	1.77	+6.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Allianz Field