← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Aug 8, 08:30 PM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 3.60 | Dutch cover | $2.78 | 3.60 | $7.23 | — | — | pending |
New England Revolution win in New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 2.50 | Dutch cover | $17.22 | 2.50 | $25.83 | +5% | — | pending |
Under in New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.05 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.50 | +3% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution win | 39% | 42% | 2.50 | value: +5% |
| Houston Dynamo win | 34% | 31% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 50% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 50% | 2.05 | fair |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo win | 2.75 | 2.83 | +2.9% | |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.42 | -5.0% | |
| New England Revolution win | 2.35 | 2.42 | +3.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Gillette Stadium |