← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Jul 25, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Montero
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York City FC win in New York City FC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.55 | Portfolio | $16.27 | 2.55 | $25.22 | +12% | +25.22 | won |
Draw in New York City FC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 3.75 | Dutch cover | $2.67 | 3.75 | $7.34 | — | -2.67 | lost |
New York City FC win in New York City FC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.38 | Dutch cover | $17.33 | 2.38 | $23.92 | +19% | +23.92 | won |
New York City FC win in New York City FC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.38 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 2.38 | $6.90 | +19% | +6.90 | won |
Under in New York City FC v Chicago Fire · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.38 | $13.80 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
New York City FC win in New York City FC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.28 | Main (your slate bets) | $20.31 | 2.28 | $26.00 | +15% | +26.00 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC win | 40% | 50% | 2.55 | value: +28% |
| Chicago Fire win | 34% | 26% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.76 | fair |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 57% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 43% | 2.38 | fair |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire win | 2.70 | 2.63 | -2.6% | |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.60 | -2.7% | |
| New York City FC win | 2.36 | 2.46 | +4.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York City FC | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.86 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 174.00 | 115.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Yankee Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 61% | 59% | 1.55 | fair |
| No | 39% | 41% | 2.55 | value: +5% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 9.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under 4.5 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| 2.00 |
| 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.95 |
| elo | 1552.37 | 1533.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.67 | 5.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.23 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| league points | 22.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.73 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | 0.59 |
| solidity v1 | 0.39 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.29 | 29.03 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.56 |