← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 12:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Corrigan
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC · Match result @ 4.00 | Dutch cover | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | -2.50 | lost |
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC · Match result @ 3.65 | Dutch cover | $17.50 | 3.65 | $46.38 | +13% | +46.38 | won |
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC · Match result @ 3.65 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 3.65 | $13.25 | +13% | +13.25 | won |
Under in Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.60 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.60 | $16.00 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC win | 48% | 45% | 2.03 | fair |
| Sporting Kansas City win | 27% | 31% | 3.75 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 60% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 40% | 2.60 | value: +5% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC win | 1.95 | 1.96 | +0.5% | |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.85 | -1.3% | |
| Sporting Kansas City win | 3.40 | 3.40 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Minnesota United FC · 3-4-3 · Cameron Knowles
Drake Callender · Michael Boxall · Morris Duggan · Devin Padelford · Kyle Duncan · Owen Gene · Wil Trapp · Anthony Markanich · Joaquín Pereyra · Kelvin Yeboah · Tomás Chancalay
Sporting Kansas City · 4-2-3-1 · Raphael Wicky
Stefan Cleveland · Jacob Davis · Or Blorian · Wyatt Meyer · Emir Karić · Lasse Berg Johnsen · Zorhan Bassong · Capita · Manu García · Calvin Harris · Dejan Joveljić
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Kansas City | Minnesota United FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 172.00 | 172.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Children's Mercy Park |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 63% | 62% | 1.50 | fair |
| No | 37% | 38% | 2.63 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 9.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 | 42% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| 5.40 |
| 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 3.50 |
| elo | 1339.95 | 1536.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.70 | -21.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.76 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.76 |
| league points | 11.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 29.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.47 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -0.58 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.59 | 26.97 |
| state index | -0.69 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.45 |