Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Minnesota United FC win	48%	45%	1.98	fair
Sporting Kansas City win	28%	31%	3.50	value: +8%
Draw	24%	25%	3.95	fair

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	62%	59%	1.53	fair
Under	38%	41%	2.57	value: +5%

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	63%	61%	1.50	fair
No	37%	39%	2.57	fair

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Minnesota United FC win	1.95	1.93	-1.0%
Draw	3.90	3.85	-1.3%
Sporting Kansas City win	3.40	3.40	0.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.