Toronto FC v Charlotte

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Wed, Aug 19, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Charlotte win in Toronto FC v Charlotte · Match result @ 2.80	Main (your slate bets)	$9.86	2.80	$17.75	+8%	—	pending
No in Toronto FC v Charlotte · Both teams to score @ 2.38	Main (your slate bets)	$17.51	2.38	$24.16	+18%	—	pending
Under in Toronto FC v Charlotte · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20	Main (your slate bets)	$17.51	2.20	$21.01	+22%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Toronto FC win	40%	34%	2.40	fair
Charlotte win	34%	38%	2.87	value: +9%
Draw	25%	28%	3.70	value: +4%

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	58%	45%	1.67	fair
Under	42%	55%	2.27	value: +24%

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	61%	51%	1.53	fair
No	39%	49%	2.40	value: +17%

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

BMO Field