Philadelphia Union v Inter Miami

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Wed, Aug 19, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Philadelphia Union win in Philadelphia Union v Inter Miami · Match result @ 2.55	Main (your slate bets)	$6.13	2.55	$9.50	+6%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Inter Miami win	39%	36%	2.45	fair
Philadelphia Union win	37%	42%	2.62	value: +9%
Draw	24%	22%	4.00	fair

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	68%	72%	1.40	fair
Under	32%	28%	3.20	fair

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	69%	72%	1.36	fair
No	31%	28%	3.05	fair

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Subaru Park