CF Montreal v DC United

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Aug 15, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Draw in CF Montreal v DC United · Match result @ 3.60	Dutch cover	$2.78	3.60	$7.23	—	—	pending
CF Montreal win in CF Montreal v DC United · Match result @ 2.25	Dutch cover	$17.22	2.25	$21.52	+6%	—	pending
CF Montreal win in CF Montreal v DC United · Match result @ 2.20	Main (your slate bets)	$9.85	2.20	$11.82	+4%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
CF Montreal win	42%	47%	2.29	value: +8%
DC United win	31%	28%	3.16	fair
Draw	26%	25%	3.60	fair

across 15 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	55%	56%	1.76	fair
Under	45%	44%	2.20	fair

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
DC United win	2.90	3.05	+5.2%
Draw	3.60	3.50	-2.8%
CF Montreal win	2.25	2.25	0.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Saputo Stadium

Yes	59%	59%	1.62	fair
No	41%	41%	2.35	fair