← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Jul 26, 01:30 AM UTC · ref: V. Rivas
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego win in San Diego v FC Dallas · Match result @ 2.28 | Portfolio | $15.81 | 2.28 | $20.24 | +10% | +20.24 | won |
Draw in San Diego v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.08 | Dutch cover | $2.45 | 4.08 | $7.55 | — | -2.45 | lost |
San Diego win in San Diego v FC Dallas · Match result @ 2.12 | Dutch cover | $17.55 | 2.12 | $19.66 | +13% | +19.66 | won |
San Diego win in San Diego v FC Dallas · Match result @ 2.12 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 2.12 | $5.60 | +13% | +5.60 | won |
San Diego win in San Diego v FC Dallas · Match result @ 2.11 | Main (your slate bets) | $21.37 | 2.11 | $23.72 | +14% | +23.72 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego win | 44% | 54% | 2.28 | value: +23% |
| FC Dallas win | 31% | 24% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.08 | fair |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 66% | 1.45 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 34% | 2.90 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas win | 3.10 | 2.85 | -7.9% | |
| Draw | 3.87 | 3.90 | +0.9% | |
| San Diego win | 2.04 | 2.21 | +8.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
FC Dallas · 4-2-3-1 · Eric Quill
Daniel · Shaq Moore · Osaze Urhoghide · Sebastien Ibeagha · Nolan Norris · Kaick · Christian Cappis · Joaquín Valiente · Patrickson Delgado · Ran Binyamin · Petar Musa
San Diego · 4-3-3 · Mikey Varas
CJ Dos Santos · Oscar Verhoeven · Christopher McVey · Manu Duah · Kieran Sargeant · Alejandro Alvarado Jr · Jeppe Tverskov · Onni Valakari · Anders Dreyer · Marcus Ingvartsen · Alex Mighten
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 50' | ⚽ | Alejandro Alvarado Jr · San Diego |
| 81' | 🟨 | Bernard Kamungo · FC Dallas |
| 88' | 🟨 | Anderson Julio · FC Dallas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego | FC Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 693.00 | 632.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Snapdragon Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 67% | 65% | 1.40 | fair |
| No | 33% | 35% | 2.95 | value: +4% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 51% | 1.87 |
| Under 9.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | 50% | 1.91 |
| Under 4.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4.00 |
| 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 1.26 |
| elo | 1523.75 | 1538.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.68 | 25.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.92 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 17.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 25.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.63 |
| skill v1 | 1.05 | -0.24 |
| solidity v1 | -1.14 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.04 | 26.01 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.95 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.77 |