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Los Angeles Galaxy v San Jose Earthquakes

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Aug 20, 02:30 AM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Over in Los Angeles Galaxy v San Jose Earthquakes · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.48
Main (your slate bets)$11.541.48$5.54+3%—pending
Los Angeles Galaxy win in Los Angeles Galaxy v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 2.40
Main (your slate bets)$15.132.40$21.18+15%—pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Los Angeles Galaxy win39%48%2.50value: +19%
San Jose Earthquakes win37%30%2.65fair
Draw24%22%3.90fair

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Over65%69%1.50value: +4%
Under35%31%2.88fair

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Yes66%69%1.42fair
No34%31%2.80fair

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDignity Health Sports Park