Austin v FC Dallas

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Mon, Aug 17, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
No in Austin v FC Dallas · Both teams to score @ 2.50	Main (your slate bets)	$10.39	2.50	$15.59	+6%	—	pending
Under in Austin v FC Dallas · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.35	Main (your slate bets)	$17.06	2.35	$23.03	+9%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
FC Dallas win	41%	39%	2.30	fair
Austin win	33%	35%	2.88	fair
Draw	25%	26%	3.80	fair

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	60%	54%	1.57	fair
Under	40%	46%	2.35	value: +9%

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	62%	58%	1.50	fair
No	38%	42%	2.50	value: +6%

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Q2 Stadium