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Sporting Kansas City v St. Louis City

← Major League Soccer 2026 Β· Thu, Aug 20, 12:00 AM UTC Β· scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v St. Louis City Β· Match result @ 3.25
Main (your slate bets)$14.083.25$31.68+14%β€”pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
St. Louis City win47%40%2.05fair
Sporting Kansas City win29%36%3.35value: +19%
Draw24%24%3.90fair

across 7 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Over63%62%1.50fair
Under37%38%2.65fair

across 6 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Yes64%64%1.45fair
No36%36%2.67fair

across 6 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueChildren's Mercy Park