Portland Timbers v FC Dallas

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 02:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Portland Timbers win	41%	42%	2.32	fair
FC Dallas win	34%	34%	2.80	fair
Draw	25%	24%	3.90	fair

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	64%	61%	1.50	fair
Under	36%	39%	2.70	value: +5%

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	66%	63%	1.42	fair
No	34%	37%	2.80	value: +3%

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
FC Dallas win	2.75	2.73	-0.9%
Draw	3.90	3.85	-1.3%
Portland Timbers win	2.25	2.25	0.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Providence Park