← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 02:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Da Silva
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Portland Timbers win in Portland Timbers v FC Dallas · Match result @ 2.38 | Main (your slate bets) | $7.75 | 2.38 | $10.69 | +4% | -7.75 | lost |
Draw in Portland Timbers v FC Dallas · Match result @ 3.90 | Dutch cover | $2.56 | 3.90 | $7.42 | — | +7.42 | won |
Portland Timbers win in Portland Timbers v FC Dallas · Match result @ 2.43 | Dutch cover | $17.44 | 2.43 | $24.94 | +7% | -17.44 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers win | 40% | 44% | 2.50 | value: +9% |
| FC Dallas win | 35% | 32% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.90 | fair |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 38% | 2.70 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas win | 2.75 | 2.72 | -1.1% | |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.75 | -3.8% | |
| Portland Timbers win | 2.25 | 2.30 | +2.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
FC Dallas · 4-4-1-1 · Eric Quill
Daniel · Herman Johansson · Osaze Urhoghide · Shaq Moore · Nolan Norris · Joaquín Valiente · Christian Cappis · Kaick · Patrickson Delgado · Santiago Moreno · Logan Farrington
Portland Timbers · 4-1-4-1 · Jack Cassidy
James Pantemis · Brandon Bye · Finn Surman · Kamal Miller · Jímer Fory · José Caicedo · Ariel Lassiter · Cole Bassett · David Pereira Da Costa · Antony Alves · Kevin Kelsy
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 37' | 🟨 | Kamal Miller · Portland Timbers |
| 45' | ⚽ | Patrickson Delgado · FC Dallas |
| 59' | 🟨 | Herman Johansson · FC Dallas |
| 66' | ⚽ | Kevin Kelsy · Portland Timbers |
| 88' | ⚽ | Petar Musa · FC Dallas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brandon Bye · Portland Timbers |
| 90' | ⚽ | Felipe Mora · Portland Timbers |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diego Chará · Portland Timbers |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sebastien Ibeagha · FC Dallas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portland Timbers | FC Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 995.00 | 629.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Providence Park |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 66% | 64% | 1.44 | fair |
| No | 34% | 36% | 2.88 | value: +4% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under 9.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | 50% | 1.87 |
| Under 4.5 | 50% | 1.87 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6.00 |
| 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 1.26 |
| elo | 1469.41 | 1539.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.17 | 41.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 1.15 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| league points | 17.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.67 |
| skill v1 | 1.30 | -0.16 |
| solidity v1 | -0.70 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.68 | 26.22 |
| state index | 0.33 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.90 |