← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Jul 26, 02:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Villarreal
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Galaxy win in San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles Galaxy · Match result @ 5.50 | Fade goal live | $5.00 | 5.50 | $22.50 | +28% | -5.00 | lost |
Yes in San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles Galaxy · Both teams to score @ 1.50 | Main (your slate bets) | $18.85 | 1.50 | $9.43 | +5% | +9.43 | won |
Draw in San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles Galaxy · Match result @ 4.33 | Dutch cover | $2.31 | 4.33 | $7.69 | — | +7.69 | won |
Los Angeles Galaxy win in San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles Galaxy · Match result @ 3.80 | Dutch cover | $17.69 | 3.80 | $49.53 | +6% | -17.69 | lost |
Los Angeles Galaxy win in San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles Galaxy · Match result @ 3.85 | Main (your slate bets) | $6.13 | 3.85 | $17.47 | +7% | -6.13 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes win | 53% | 51% | 1.88 | fair |
| Los Angeles Galaxy win | 24% | 28% | 4.55 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 71% | 1.50 | value: +6% |
| Under | 34% | 29% | 2.88 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Galaxy win | 4.45 | 3.73 | -16.3% | |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.07 | -1.8% | |
| San Jose Earthquakes win | 1.67 | 1.85 | +10.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Los Angeles Galaxy · 4-4-2 · Greg Vanney
JT Marcinkowski · Miki Yamane · Maya Yoshida · Justin Haak · Julián Aude · Harbor Miller · Edwin Cerrillo · Lucas Sanabria · Robert Taylor · Joseph Paintsil · Marco Reus
San Jose Earthquakes · 4-2-3-1 · Bruce Arena
Angus Gunn · Benjamin Kikanović · Daniel Munie · Reid Roberts · Jamar Ricketts · Jonathan Gonzalez · Beau Leroux · Jack Skahan · Nick Fernandez · Timo Werner · Ousseni Bouda
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Jose Earthquakes | Los Angeles Galaxy |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.64 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.27 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 571.00 | 2032.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Stanford Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 65% | 69% | 1.50 | value: +4% |
| No | 35% | 31% | 2.88 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 10.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Over 10.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 50% | 1.87 |
| Over 4.5 | 50% | 1.90 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5.80 |
| 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.96 | 2.92 |
| elo | 1514.57 | 1459.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.94 | -32.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 48.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.67 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| league points | 32.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.18 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 0.71 |
| solidity v1 | -2.24 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.66 | 27.66 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.33 | 1.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.45 |